Gold Hits Record Highs! Here’s Why It May Still Climb Higher in 2025

Gold Shines Brighter Than Ever in 2025: Rally Far from Over, Say Experts

Gold has become the star performer in global markets in 2025, posting massive year-to-date (YTD) returns of nearly 25% and hitting all-time highs. According to a recent report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd (MOSL), the rally isn’t showing signs of slowing down anytime soon.

Driven by geopolitical fears, a weakening US dollar, aggressive central bank buying, and ongoing trade tensions, gold continues to attract investors as a safe haven. Even silver has followed gold’s upward path—though at a slower pace—gaining 15% YTD on COMEX.

 Why Gold Is Outperforming Everything Else

Geopolitical Risks and Trade Wars Push Gold Higher

From escalating tensions in the Middle East to tariff wars between the US and China, global instability has made investors nervous. As a result, many are flocking to gold, which is traditionally viewed as a safe store of value during uncertain times.

MOSL highlights that the recent spike in gold prices gained extra fuel after former US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, which targeted over 50 countries and pushed duties on Chinese goods to as high as 145%. This triggered fears of stagflation—a toxic combination of high inflation and stagnant economic growth.

Inflation Woes and Central Bank Buying

Inflation continues to haunt global economies. Even after three interest rate cuts in 2024, the US Federal Reserve has remained cautious in 2025 due to inflation pressures from higher import costs. As a result, central banks—especially in emerging markets like China—are stockpiling gold as a protective measure.

“Gold continues to be a beacon of stability in a world increasingly marked by policy uncertainty,”
— Navneet Damani, Group Senior VP, Motilal Oswal

 Technical Picture: Where Gold Could Be Headed Next

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Motilal Oswal analysts are watching some crucial levels closely:

• MCX Gold: Support at ₹91,000 and resistance near ₹99,000 per 10 grams

• COMEX Gold: Support at $3,100 and resistance at $3,400 per ounce

At the time of reporting:

• COMEX Gold hovered around $3,324

• MCX Gold was trading near ₹95,250

Although prices have pulled back slightly from peak levels, the broader trend remains strong. Analysts recommend a “buy-on-dips” strategy for medium to long-term investors.

 Expert Views: Still Bullish Despite Short-Term Volatility

What Motilal Oswal Says

Motilal Oswal maintains a positive long-term view on gold, citing:

• Central bank gold accumulation

• Elevated global inflation

• Ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty

• Weakening US dollar (down 7% YTD)

The brokerage believes these factors create a structural bullish case for gold over the next several quarters.

Kotak Mahindra’s View

Satish Dondapati, Fund Manager at Kotak Mahindra AMC, agrees with MOSL’s view. He noted that gold gained 6% since early April, shortly after the US announced fresh tariffs. He expects gold to continue its short-term upward momentum if trade tensions worsen.

“The long-term outlook remains bullish, supported by strong central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties.”
— Satish Dondapati, Fund Manager, Kotak AMC

 What Could Go Wrong? Experts Advise Caution at Highs

Signs of Fatigue?

According to Jateen Trivedi, VP at LKP Securities, gold is showing some short-term weakness as it struggles to cross the key resistance at $3,350 on COMEX.

He warns that:

• A decisive break below $3,290 could lead to a correction towards $3,150

• High volatility near record levels requires cautious buying

• Investors should watch technical support zones like $3,280–$3,290 closely

 Silver Also Gains, But Trails Gold

While gold has delivered 25% returns so far in 2025, silver has gained 15% YTD on COMEX. However, analysts say silver’s gains are largely riding on gold’s momentum. Compared to gold, silver remains more sensitive to industrial demand, making it more volatile and less reliable in times of economic stress.

 Weak Dollar and Fed Policy Boost Bullion Appeal

The US dollar has fallen 7% YTD, further boosting gold’s value in dollar terms. At the same time, US Treasury yields have moved up due to inflation fears and unwinding of hedge fund positions. All these macro factors have made gold even more attractive to both institutional and retail investors.

Even with the US labor market remaining strong, most analysts believe the overall global economic picture still favors gold.

 Is It Too Late to Invest in Gold?

Not at all—at least, not according to the experts.

Despite trading near all-time highs, gold’s fundamentals remain strong and supportive. As long as geopolitical tensions remain unresolved, inflation remains high, and central banks keep buying, gold’s bull run is expected to continue.

Motilal Oswal’s key advice?
 Buy on dips
 Stay invested for the long term
 Watch for key support levels

“Unless major progress is made on global trade issues, gold will continue to shine,”
— Motilal Oswal Financial Services